The direct impact of Donald Trump ‘s election as the new President of the United States has raised fears of new tariff increases on American imports, especially those from China.
This was reported by the media MundoMaritimo, who held an interview with the maritime industry analyst, Lars Jensen, who said:
“A further increase in US import demand in the near term, as importers of non-time-sensitive products will increase their orders before new tariffs are imposed.”
He added that “since it is not known exactly how large these tariffs could be, or when or where they will be applied, they could amount to a large increase in demand.”
Trump proposed applying widespread tariffs of 10 to 20 percent on most of the $3 trillion in annual U.S. imports, and a minimum tariff of 60 percent on all imports from China.
In 2018, during his first administration, announcements of tariff increases caused a significant surge in maritime imports, as importers rushed to bring in goods before they came into effect in early 2019.
Donald Trump and his decisions
The president-elect will begin his term on January 20, 2025 , a few days before, on January 15, the deadline for renegotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) expires, which, if they fail, could lead to a new port strike at the USEC and the USGC.
However, the new administration, according to Jensen, could influence events whether or not it decides to invoke the Taft-Hartley Act (which restricts the ability of unions to act) and the degree of commitment it makes to the entities in conflict to find an agreement.
Regarding the Red Sea crisis , he notes that one should keep in mind that Trump’s agenda is very much “America First,” and the fact that most merchant ships do not have an American flag could influence his policy decisions when the issue specifically concerns maritime transport matters.
In the long term, the analyst explains that further changes in supply chain patterns should be expected.
“For U.S. imports, this will likely mean further changes in sourcing patterns, such as what we have seen, for example, with Chinese goods in recent years routed through Mexico.”
On the other hand, he anticipates, “we could expect this to add a negative impact to US exports due to retaliatory tariffs and, in turn, increase the imbalance between full and empty container flows.”
